The pandemic will punish Prairie house prices the most in Canada, but even hotspots Toronto and Vancouver will see prices drop on the back of rising rental market vacancies and lower immigration rates, according to a new report.Average single family detached house prices will fall by 6.7 per cent next year as the recovery stalls, economic stimulus fades and debt problems increase, Moody’s Analytics and RPS Real Property Solutions Inc. forecast in a housing market outlook published Wednesday. The figure combining all housing types is a drop of more than 7 per cent.Calgary and Edmonton will lead the losers with 10 per cent peak-to-trough slides in prices next year as oil market woes continue, with Regina next at more than a 9 per cent drop predicted. Toronto follows with a near 9 per cent fall forecast. Vancouver prices are expected to drop at just less than 7 per cent, the report said.“The housing market will no longer be able to escape the poor condition of the labour market as vacancy and delinquency rates rise in 2021,” report author Abhilasha Singh of Moody’s Analytics said in a statement. “However, while all regions are expected to experience price declines, the size of the impact will vary meaningfully across them.”
The report follows earlier forecasts by Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp., the country’s largest public mortgage provider, and cited its data. On Monday, CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan reaffirmed his call that house prices could decline by 18 per cent because of pandemic-induced weak housing demand.
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